Weight loss "success" stats - Slide Deck.

How likely are you to achieve “normal” body weight, via lifestyle oriented weight loss practices?

Published in 2015 in the American Journal of Public Health the paper by Fildes et al had reviewed the electronic health records over a 9 year period (2004-2014) for 76,704+ men and 99,791women with BMI >30.

Unsurprisingly what they found was: “...maintaining weight loss was rare and the probability of achieving ‘normal’ weight was extremely low.”

“….observed reductions in BMI category more frequently among patients with a higher baseline BMI, but these decreases were more likely to be followed by subsequent increases than further decreases or stability in BMI category.”

“Weight cycling, evidenced by both increases and decreases in BMI category, was most common among men and women with baseline [BMIs >40]. Greater instability in weight trajectories among patients with higher BMIs has been reported previously. Weight cycling has been linked to a higher risk of morbidity and mortality than has stable weight although evidence of causality remains inconclusive.”

What we can conclude from this is that treatment frameworks grounded in weight management are ineffective for the overwhelming majority.

Reference:  Fildes et al. Probability of an ob*se person attaining normal body weight: cohort study using electronic health records. American journal of public health. 2015 [Link]